The USDA released the latest World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report, on Friday June 9th, 2023.
The WASDE report pegged the U.S. 2022/2023 corn ending stocks at 1.452 billion bushels, above the May estimate and the trade’s expectation of 1.417 billion bushels.
For soybeans, the U.S. ending stocks were pegged at 230 million bushels, above the May estimate and the trade’s expectation of 215 million bushels.
USDA pegged the U.S. wheat ending stocks at 598 million bushels, reflecting no change from May’s estimate of 598 million bushels. The trade’s expectation was 602 million bushels.
We are getting some nice rains today (Monday June 12th) and there is more in the forecast this week. All the crops will be ready for this much needed rain. Drought conditions have expanded across a large portion of the corn belt, especially the Eastern region of the US, but there is to be a pattern change in late June to bring rains to the corn belt.
There is concern that on July 17th Russia will quit the deal allowing the safe wartime export of grain and fertilizers from three Ukrainian Black Sea Ports. Moscow has been threatening to walk away from the deal (Black Sea Grain Initiative) if obstacles to its own grain and fertilizer shipments are not removed.
The US Fed held interest rates steady for June but indicated that an increase next month in July is likely.
Soybean and grain futures rose in overnight trading amid dry weather in parts of the U.S. that may affect recently emerged crops.
Markets are sharply higher on weather and short covering Thursday, June 15th, 2023. Weather remains the topic. Models now indicate a drier-than-expected forecast in the coming days in Eastern Iowa, Northern Minnesota, and Wisconsin as a front moving through will not cover that area as thought.
Models still predict a front developing that will bring moisture to most dry areas of the Midwest around June 24, and perhaps into early July. Markets will be volatile if this forecast changes. Approximately 57% of corn production area is in drought, and 51% of soybean production area is in drought. Drought also expanded in Alberta and Saskatchewan, Canada - the major growing region for canola. Corn and soybean conditions are expected to show further deterioration in most states in Tuesday's crop condition report (Monday no data is released due to the Juneteenth holiday.) The exception could be Indiana, Missouri, and Ohio which could see unchanged to a slight improvement in conditions.
Looking at the seasonal charts June and July is when we historically top out on new crop prices. Take a look at what you have marketed and reward this rally if you have room to make additional sales in your grain marketing plan.