FromMonday’s opening to Thursday’s close, November ’23 soybeans gained 20 ½ cents,December ’23 corn lost 2 ¼ cents and September’23 wheat lost 41 cents.
Marketshave been mixed this week. The main thing affecting trade is the state of theglobal economy. A failing economic situation in China could slow US exports.Earlier this week, Russia attacked a grain facility on the Danube River inUkraine, damaging grain stores. The Danube is the main route of grain exportsfor Ukraine, further damage to grain handling facilities on the Danube wouldcause a major reduction in Ukraine’s export capacity. News of the escalation ofthe war in Ukraine has been outweighed by negative economic data coming fromChina.
Lastweek, the August WASDE report was released. In line with estimates, the USDAcut yields of both corn and soybeans. Corn is now estimated to yield 175.1bu/acre. Along with cuts in yield, there were also cuts in domesticdemand—creating a 15.3% stocks-to-use ratio. End-stocks are expected to reach2.202 billion bu. The USDA reduced soybean yield predictions to 50.9 bu/acre.This creates a 245 million bu ending stock value, which is supportive ofsoybean prices.
Corn Play on Numbers
Both corn and soybeans saw improvements in the weekly crop condition report. Corn improved by 2 points to be rated 59% Good/Excellent (above the trade estimate of 58%) and soybeans improved by 5 points to be rated 59% Good/Excellent (above the trade estimate of 55%). The improvement in soybeans is especially significant as there is potential for yields to increase with favourable weather and growing conditions through the beginning of August.
Weather is expected to turn hotter for the last portion of August, with many regions of the corn belt expecting to see temperatures in the triple digits. This weather is not expected to impact yields in a negative way.
The current projected ending stocks of corn at 2.2 billion bushels and soybeans at 245 million bushels. With carryout for corn being that large. Some charts point to a Dec. futures range of 3.75-4.50 (as of writing this CZ23 at 4.90.) For beans, the charts would point to a 12.50-14.00 Nov. range (as of writing the SX23 is trading in the range at 13.45.) Continue to be diligent in your marketing plan. Southwestern Ontario has handled a large wheat crop. The consensus on the Ontario corn crop is it could be very large. Make plans for your harvest movement needs.
Soybean Play on Numbers
