Severalfactors will combine to drive this week’s trade. The most notable will bepositioning for the August WASDE report that will be released today at noonEST, August 11th, 2023. The consensus is the USDA will trim yields in thisrelease, especially on corn. Private yield estimates vary widely from a low of170 bushels per acre to a high of 180 bushels. In July the yield was estimatedat 177.5 bushels an acre. The soybean yield is projected to be trimmed by 1 bu.for a 51-bushel per. acre average. Trade is also expecting to see changes todemand for old crop and possibly new crop as well. It is not out of thequestion that any alteration to demand will negate yield adjustments.
Aheadof this trade will be focused on weather and crop reports. Conditions haveturned much more favorable for crop development recently and this has startedto cause some analysts to add to production estimates. We are also seeing moreinterest in the Southern US corn harvest. While this has been slow to progress,soon we will start to see more yield data. Developments in the Black Sea willremain a driver of the market as well.
Privateexporters reported the following sales activity:
•251,460 metric tons of corn for delivery to Mexico during the 2023/2024marketing year
•132,000 metric tons of soybeans for delivery to China during the 2023/2024marketing year
•Private exporters reported sales of 251,000 metric tons of soybeans fordelivery to China during the 2023/2024 marketing year.
Overthe weekend Ukraine attacked a Russian oil vessel in the Black Sea andindicated it will start targeting the country’s export infrastructure as well.Ukraine is now showing that it will cripple Russia’s export channels as Russiais doing to them. Russia depends on the Black Sea for 70% of its exports sothis could impact the country’s shipments and revenue. Russia and China alsostarted joint naval activities near Alaska which caused the US to sendbattleships to the region as well. To say geopolitical tensions are risingwould be an understatement. Poland was the first of the European countries tostate they will halt Ukraine loadings following the September15th expiration of the current agreement. Ukraine’s exports are larger thanexpected for the year and EU members believe this is weighing on their exportsand values. There was a general lack of supportive news and when combined withearly positioning for Friday’s WASDE report it limited interest in today’strade to apply additional price pressure.
FS PARTNERS is having their annual crop tour this year and it is running from August 28th, 2023, to September 8th, 2023. If you would like to participate in crop tour this year, please reach out to us and we will gather the information on what fields and commodities you would like to have assessed.
Click the Link to Register Your Field
https://www.greatlakesgrain.com/2023-Crop-Tour-Sign-up-Form
Wheat harvest continues to progress in our Northern locations. Wheat harvest has been a busy and trying one this year. Quality has been monitored closely and we are still maintaining decent wheat quality. Some sprouting to be recorded but still staying above a grade discount.
