Corn
BlackSea risks are back at the forefront after Russia struck the port of Odesa againand ports on the Danube River. This is striking fears that Ukraine grain maybecome stranded in the country with limited export options. The cost of the EUproposal to move Ukraine grain out to German and Baltic ports for export isvery high and not to mention the logistics problem of the plan. A few scatteredshowers will develop across Iowa and Illinois this weekend, however, a couplemore days of heat across the Midwest are still expected this week. Next week’stemperatures look to cool off. The nature of this year’s very scatteredrainfall patterns makes it difficult to assess the overall size of the cropwith good and bad pockets all over the Midwest.
Dangerouslyhot conditions shift from the Central to Eastern US, and continue in theSouthwest US
HeatStress Effects on Corn During Pollination
Hightemperatures and low humidity can similarly desiccate pollen grains once theyare released from the anthers. Temperatures over 100 °F (38 °C) can kill pollen(Nielsen, 2020). Corn tassel branches showing anthers extruded. Peak pollenshed usually occurs in mid-morning.
HeatStress Effects on Soybeans During Flowering
Reproductivestage soybeans under heat stress: High temperatures can result in any of thefollowing in reproductive stage soybeans: aborted flowers, aborted small pods,aborted seeds in larger pods, and production of smaller seeds.
SOURCE: https://www.weather.gov/
Ethanol production was very strong this week. The amount of corn used this week is estimated at 109.96 million bushels. Cumulative corn use for the crop year has reached 4.659 billion bushels. Corn use needs to average 96.68 million bushels per week to meet the USDA’s marketing year forecast of 5.225 billion bushels.
Soybeans
Finally, some good export news for soybeans. We had 2 flash export sales on Wednesday of 229,000 tonnes and 272,000 tonnes along with another sale of 256,000 tonnes on Thursday. These are some of 1st sales that we have seen out of the U.S. in a long time and is very good news for the demand side of the balance sheet for soybeans. On the supply side, the soybean area in drought conditions in the U.S. increased to 53% from 50% last week and 26% last year. With the heat experienced this week, we expect to see crop ratings decline on Monday’s crop ratings. Upside momentum has been slightly curbed by extended forecasts showing more seasonal temperatures and regular showers for the Midwest for the month of August and a critical pod-filling period for soybeans.
Wheat
Ukraine’s infrastructure minister said over the past 2 weeks 26 port structures have been struck by Russia. Putin spoke at the African Summit and said Russia would provide free grain to poor African countries. This was a bid to offset the criticism for pulling out of the grain corridor deal. France's wheat yields are up 3.3% this year which is helping offset the supply disruption in the Black Sea.
Harvest is nearing completion in the deep SW portion of Ontario. With rains hampering harvest progress in some regions. Quality has come into question mainly the lower falling numbers. Perth and Simcoe counties have been harvesting for a week with good falling numbers being reported. Dufferin County's wheat is just reaching maturity and when the weather cooperates the combines will be hitting the fields. When wheat reaches maturity, it is best to harvest as soon as possible to avoid weather damage and reduced quality. Having the grain conditioned by a commercial/farm dryer is a good course of action to attempt optimal quality.